Self-cancelling actions
And how to measure their effects
One use of machine vision is to monitor road intersections to catch unruly drivers. The advantages of using machines over humans are plenty. Cops can only scope out a limited number of intersections for a limited duration of time while AI cameras can find every last offender at every intersection at all times of the day and night.
One possible business model for the AI company is to split "revenues" from traffic tickets issued for these infractions with local governments, e.g. for a $100 fine, the AI company gets $30.
This type of business model is challenging because of a self-cancelling property. After word gets out that a certain intersection is being monitored 24/7 by AI, most drivers will react by curbing their rule-breaking behavior, or taking a different, un-surveilled route. These counter-actions reduce the number of fines accessed, which depresses the amount of sharable revenues.
Ironically, to prove the success of such policies, one should look for a revenue reduction, not revenue growth. (There might be an initial spurt in fines before most drivers become aware of the AI traffic cop.)
The Trump Republican tariffs have the same self-cancelling property.
If the tariffs are sufficiently high so that imported goods become unaffordable, then consumers will switch to domestic suppliers. This behavioral shift should reduce the amount of imports, which in turn should suppress tariff collection.
Thus, if the policy is successful, we should observe lower imports, and less tariffs.
If tariffs go up instead of down, it implies that consumers are paying higher prices than before for the imported products, probably because no domestic substitutes are available. (There might be an initial spurt before prices catch up to the new reality, before businesses run out of workarounds, or before consumer behavior changes.)
If the stated goal of returning manufacturing to the U.S. is achieved, there should be fewer imports, and thus less tariffs collected.
The most notorious self-cancelling product is 100% effective medication.
If a new medicine is 100% effective, then patients are cured, removing the need to buy more drugs. The pharmaceutical company will eventually suffer a collapse of this line of business. This is why many observers believe that pharmas don't have a strong incentive to cure any disease.
