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Bayesian

Interpreting margins of error in tennis calls

sports analytics

Interpreting margins of error in tennis calls

When two sources of evidence disagree: pick a winner or combine

Pining for less precise forecasting

Pining for less precise forecasting

The rise of continuously updated forecasts

99.4% art, 0.6% data

99.4% art, 0.6% data

Kaiser looks behind the CDC's "nowcast" of Omicron, and finds nothing.