Interpreting margins of error in tennis calls
When two sources of evidence disagree: pick a winner or combine
Bayesian
Pining for less precise forecasting
The rise of continuously updated forecasts
Reading Statistical Analytics Illustrated
Kaiser reads Kottemann's introductory statistics book.
Reading Gelman's take on election polling
Kaiser reads Andrew Gelman's paper about failures in election forecasting.
99.4% art, 0.6% data
Kaiser looks behind the CDC's "nowcast" of Omicron, and finds nothing.