Illusion of perfection
The illusion of perfection ignores statistical uncertainty
statistical model
The reckless practice of eyeballing trend lines
The reckless practice of eyeballing trend lines
The player who scored on his or her birthday
What is the chance that a football player scores on his birthday?
All else is never equal
Kaiser discusses the popular all-else-being-equal analyses.
Common misreading of data with time lags
Kaiser reminds you that the media told us Delta was less severe, and they got it wrong.
99.4% art, 0.6% data
Kaiser looks behind the CDC's "nowcast" of Omicron, and finds nothing.